As a product manager, The Mole often needs to make decisions. Sometimes the evidence is unambiguous and the conclusion undebatable. Far more often, the evidence is dodgy and the risk of cognitive biases degrading the quality of the decision is very real. The literature on cognitive biases is rich — The Mole heartily recommends hanging… Continue reading Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
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I am the very model of a modern counter-factual
Things that *are* are easy to measure. (Well, actually, they’re not, but that’s another section of this blog entirely. For this moment, let us assume they are.) Things that *are not,* on the other hand, are quite difficult to measure. The Mole’s late mother had a lovely response to a certain class of hypothetical questions.… Continue reading I am the very model of a modern counter-factual
Hunting the Lion
Leo McGineva never existed: to begin with. There is no doubt whatever about that. Theodore Levitt at least tried to give a proper attribution; too many people now attribute the remark in question to Levitt himself. What remark you ask, and whence did it come? Excellent questions that have preoccupied the Mole for many hours… Continue reading Hunting the Lion
From the Particular to the General
The Mole has once again relearned an old lesson — “to see a world in a grain of sand” — in his usual way: get drawn in by the specific, then twig to the wider idea. This time the context was the seventh episode of Alexis Madrigal‘s podcast Containers and the text was this: Every time I… Continue reading From the Particular to the General
The Mole’s Favorite SARS-Cov-2 Links
Worldometers (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries) 91-DIVOC (http://www.91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/), the best way to monitor on a log scale. Looking at NY and CA on the US State-level data and switching between log and linear is a great way to build intuition about the math of flattening the curve. SF Chronicle tracker (https://projects.sfchronicle.com/2020/coronavirus-map/), a quick reference for the daily Bay Area… Continue reading The Mole’s Favorite SARS-Cov-2 Links
Fill in the Blank
At times The Mole displays behaviors that might be variously described as having a very narrow craw, or a jaw with a death grip, or an obsessive inability to forget and move on. Today’s object lesson starts on 23 April 2010 — yes, The Mole not only wrestles with ideas over the span of a… Continue reading Fill in the Blank
Dr. Bayes will see you now
Got blood? Here’s an elegant example of the positive power of data-informed decision-making. Transfusions save lives, but they are also expensive and not without risks. Each decision whether or not to transfuse is the output of some decision-making process, presenting the opportunity to reach a better balance by improving the algorithm. It may one day… Continue reading Dr. Bayes will see you now
Does Nicolas Bourbaki read Charles Dikkens?
Let’s start the year with an example that is, at least superficially, on the light-hearted side: librarians creating fake patrons to check out important books that would otherwise be discarded for lack of popularity.Underneath are two deep and important dysfunctions. The specific one — aiming to show people only what they are likely to want… Continue reading Does Nicolas Bourbaki read Charles Dikkens?
Game the metrics? Fluxx that!
Here’s an interesting way to take metrics dysfunction to an entirely different level. Examples abound of optimizing for only easy-to-measure aspects of an activity and getting, well, what was measured. The new and innovative idea described here is to select among activities based on which of them have easy-to-obtain metrics. Another way to look at… Continue reading Game the metrics? Fluxx that!
Even a googol zeros add up to nothing
During a presidential debate in 1980 Ronald Reagan famously asked “Are you better off than you were four years ago?”. His next sentence is less well-known but it shows how quickly we move to conflate measurement of human well-being with financial and economic metrics: “Is it easier for you to go and buy things in… Continue reading Even a googol zeros add up to nothing